Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 203.436647 242.396839 289.058200 349.738805 427.570442 525.451370 6.601389e+02
2025-09-28 153.967645 199.129878 259.413091 347.997295 478.847096 671.923410 9.926577e+02
2025-10-05 134.496216 185.002327 258.279242 377.088554 574.896201 911.955265 1.584320e+03
2025-10-12 120.118868 173.330930 255.800387 400.768182 668.230304 1187.419920 2.425234e+03
2025-10-19 108.325955 162.508834 251.176126 418.116394 755.326075 1493.916737 3.596577e+03
2025-10-26 97.999202 151.810837 243.968296 428.012701 830.891491 1817.975728 5.171050e+03
2025-11-02 88.714855 141.145899 234.440208 430.439881 891.143463 2142.943033 7.207590e+03
2025-11-09 79.607164 129.349585 220.595675 420.331788 918.441168 2398.261130 9.432542e+03
2025-11-16 72.003762 119.174597 208.062754 409.947021 941.507800 2660.293278 1.227643e+04
2025-11-23 65.482171 110.144324 196.322751 398.606479 958.232408 2917.787812 1.582581e+04
2025-11-30 63.943749 110.250129 202.932130 432.037342 1118.450075 3865.677203 2.828557e+04
2025-12-07 60.132401 105.457652 198.508938 437.088657 1194.410992 4548.868234 4.294287e+04
2025-12-14 57.169258 102.180409 197.259918 451.417682 1314.550356 5641.063895 7.558567e+04
2025-12-21 53.324295 96.683103 190.280709 448.660015 1374.217418 6512.073198 1.212113e+05
2025-12-28 52.509893 97.369452 197.585124 488.922628 1628.689041 9186.640004 3.397422e+05
2026-01-04 51.206718 96.838066 201.912713 521.945451 1880.978169 12637.831362 1.143255e+06
2026-01-11 49.500457 95.211160 203.276001 546.262115 2115.797026 16875.406248 5.179857e+06
2026-01-18 47.441131 92.555924 201.609113 560.177739 2312.659707 21684.135255 4.053957e+07
2026-01-25 45.123626 89.065375 197.246785 563.595471 2457.710165 26694.812929 1.449325e+09
2026-02-01 42.338120 84.224188 188.628881 549.374220 2488.865418 30098.842738 NaN
2026-02-08 39.791421 79.726316 180.403609 534.797734 2511.253872 33728.976203 NaN
2026-02-15 37.425086 75.458993 172.309888 518.919685 2516.879389 37296.708433 NaN
2026-02-22 37.312924 76.589226 179.505263 565.845909 3021.729151 61318.266720 NaN